Perhaps it’s unfair of me to assume that the road to yet another hollywood divorce started yesterday in a medieval castle near Rome, but as Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes tied the knot I’m left wondering how long this latest star marriage will last.

It’s not unfair to point out that very few Hollywood marriages have ‘Hollywood endings.’ Cruise himself has already made two attempts at the ‘happily ever after’ and must surely be hoping that this time it truly is a match made in scientology heaven. But given the high attrition rate of celebrity marriages surely even the bravest gambler might be reluctant to play his hand on this surviving ’till death due us part?

Cruise is a devout member of the Church of Scientology, formed by failed science-fiction write L. Ron Hubbard. That fact might work well for the ‘A list’ couple as it is a teaching of Scientology that married couples should not go to sleep at night without resolving any conflict they may have had during the day.

The truth is though, that regardless of religious beliefs, celebrity marriages usually end in celebrity divorces. Recently ‘Bratney’ Spears added her marriage with Kevin Federsomething to the long list of bitter celebrity marital failures. What makes the Spears failure even more awful is the rumor that her soon to be ex-husband has threatened to inflict a four hour video of the couple ‘doing it trailer park stylee’ on the world if Ms Spears doesn’t make a suitably generous settlement offer.

While I can’t imagine a similarly trashy affair happening to ‘TomKat’ in the future, it’s surely not entirely out of order to start speculating as to when the newly weds will cite “irreconcilable differences” as reason for the almost inevitable sad ending to their fairy tale marriage. After all, under such intense scrutiny from the media how much of a fairy tale could such a marriage be anyway?

Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes begin their road to divorce